Splendour In The Grass Rumours 2.0

There's already been a few whispers as to which bands might play Byron Bay's Splendour In The Grass - the music festival that this year will be held at Woodford in the Sunshine Coast Hinterland (but every year prior has been at Belongil Fields in Byron Bay). One particularly reliable whisperer has mentioned the following acts as virtual lock ins:

The Pixies
The Strokes
Florence & The Machine
Smashing Pumpkins
Hot Chip
Mumford & Sons
LCD Soundsystem
Bat For Lashes

An intriguing list there's no doubt about that, but is there any truth to these rumours - thereby making them 'trumours'? We've analysed as much of the available data and studied the stats in order to come up with the most plausible odds for whether these names represent a legit lineup leak.

The Pixies

For: Last year Black Francis told NME that the Pixies would return to the studio to make their fifth album in 2010. "New Release" is often synonymous with "World Tour".
Against: They are playing in Australia at the moment so it's unlikely they would come back so soon. And they hate each other.
Odds: A major long shot at 100-1

The Strokes

For: They are about to finish recording their new album which means touring the new material. Australia is a likely destination because they love it here and they've never played Splendour.
Against: The Strokes also love Japan and might play Fuji Rock - which falls on the same weekend as Splendour.
Odds: Fab loves it. Julian loves it. They're a good bet at 7-1.

Florence & The Machine

For: She just killed it at Laneway and all her side shows were sellouts - the demand for mo Flo is strong. She's also doing a heap of Euro festivals in the middle of the year and her calendar is oddly blank over the Splendour weekend dates (30 July - 1 August 2010). Coincidence?
Against: Too soon to bother with the 15 hour flight from UK to here.
Odds: Decent at 10-1.

Smashing Pumpkins

For: Billy Corgan is a weird and unpredictable man so you just never know. A Greatest Hits-style Pumpkins set could be totally epic though...
Against: Billy Corgan is a weird and unpredictable man - i.e. he might be too busy being in love with Jessica Simpson.
Odds: Another long shot at 99-1.

Hot Chip

hot-chip

For: They should drop in to Oz to tour their latest album. Plus they've played Splendour before and killed.
Against: They have already been confirmed for Fuji Rock so they'll be in the right hemisphere, although that might also mean the cross over will be impossible and they won't be able to get here in time for Splendour.
Odds: 2-1. We are totally feeling Hot Chip for the first announcement.

LCD Soundsystem

For: They've got their new record coming out and already announced a world tour - without the Splendour weekend dates filled yet. They're confirmed for Fuji Rock too and there's no way Murphy would leave us out of the tour.
Against: Same issue as Hot Chip - the cross over time might make it impossible.
Odds: Nothing's impossible. Let's dance: 5-1 odds.

Bat For Lashes

For: Nothing specific. Pedestrian staff members just thinks Natasha Khan is totally hot. She also has never performed live in Australia as far as we know, and is currently "Not Available" for an Australian tour in 2010 suggesting she might already be locked in to an exclusive with a particular festival or promoter.
Against: She might be weirded out by desperate Aussie fan-bros and avoid.
Odds: We'll put the odds that Bat For Lashes to play Splendour at 20-1. The chance that any Pedestrian staff members will get to pants her? Not good.